Unlike other high-scoring sports, such as basketball, a soccer match has a significant chance of being a draw. In this article, we try to help predict and bet on draws. It looks simple and that is why many betting players try to take advantage of the high odds offered for draws by the bookies. However, they need more things than just a simple draw prediction.
Premier League draw stats
About 24% of Premier League games in the 2013-2018 season ended in draws. The most common score was 1-1 with 42% followed by scoreless draws (0-0) with 32% and 2-2 with 22%. So at that time, draws played an important role in the Premier League, not only as a result but also as part of the handicaps that included them.
Logically, a tie is more likely between two groups of similar capacity, after taking into account the home team factor. In a case where the title contender plays against a team that fights for its salvation, we will see the chances of a draw shrink to 14%. However two more equivalent teams would have a 30% chance of ending the draw.
This can lead us to the wrong conclusion that it is enough to bet on a draw in which the opponents are equivalent in terms of odds to win the draw in our bet. This is of course wrong, since betting companies do not simply throw away their money.
Even one’s potentially high ability to predict a draw does not guarantee that he will make a profit. Most of the times the probability of a draw drops into the betting odds offered. The rule of value betting is of course applicable to the high returns of the draws. We should take it into consideration when betting on them.
It is also important to know that even when a team has shown great ability in draws, for example because of its tight playing style, it does not necessarily mean that it will continue to do so forever. But even if it continues on the same pattern, the potential for profit can be overestimated, believing that future draws will have value while this is not necessarily true.
Previous draws do not count
For example, Premier League teams that brought the most draws from 2006 to 2016 were typically average teams in tables, such as Stoke City, West Brom and Aston Villa. Together, they had an average of 16 draws per season. However Premier League had an average of almost 10 draws. The following year, however, this trinity dropped from 16 to just over 10, very close to the average of the category.
It is important to understand the factors that contribute to a tie, even those that are not clearly contested. One of them is the end of the season where the motives of two opposing teams to avoid a defeat can be reconciled to one degree. We have seen this happen more often in Italy, with some “convenient” draws to be a strong favorite.
Statistically, the five major leagues in Europe and the Champions League have similar draw rates, around 24.30% on average. So it is preferable for players to focus on the individual characteristics of each team rather than the championships.
So in order to bet on draws and choose which draws to put in our bet we need to have some rules in mind.
Best strategy to bet on draws
Starting with our study, as the statistics show, we should eliminate the stereotypes associated with certain leagues. After all, the tendency of a league to draw results is something that bookmakers know well before us, so they have adjusted their odds accordingly by subtracting any betting value from them.
The motivation of the teams should be high on the factors for our choices. When one of the opponents “hits” to a certain extent it is obvious that during the match the tie can evolve to the most logical result. Also when neither of the two teams is interested to win then draw is the first favorite result from the start, which of course has low returns.
Another feature of teams that tend to draw is the difficulty in scoring. Also something that can be decisive in the final result, is when a match reaches an advanced point goalless. Then no team in normal conditions will risk too much to score a goal.
Performance-balanced games do not necessarily have a higher chance of being drawn. As the statistics show, games where the draw is the second favorite result have a similar frequency of draws to those with the highest draw.
Bookmakers are often right.
This should be our starting point when we search for any bets and not just draws. Such a strategy will save us from many wrong choices. At the same time reduce the cost of our bets as well as increase our rigor when we chooss our bets.
Finally, we should definitely avoid big multiple bets with draws. Obviously the returns are very attractive. We have to resist and include a few bets and put them into a system. This way we avoid the many and frequent frustrations that will lead to the disappearance of our capital.
Generally we must be aware that there is no magic recipe for profits when we bet on draws. The same applies of course to draws. So, we always have to play with prudence and discipline to keep betting for fun. Betting must not to become an obstacle in our lives.
The most important factor when you select a draw is the motivation of the teams. Teams that focus to get one point from a match most of the times succeed.
In my opinion, not at all. Every match is different and previous matches had different factors.
As every type of betting draws are also difficult to predict.